"1.5 To Stay Alive"
The Origin of "1.5 to Stay Alive" and the Stark Reality of Warming
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The slogan "1.5 to stay alive" originated at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21). Small island nations, vulnerable countries, and climate activists used the rallying cry to push for an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report examining the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming. Released in 2018, the IPCC report highlighted the stark differences between these temperature thresholds.
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At 2°C of warming versus 1.5°C, the risks of extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, and human suffering increase dramatically. For instance, an additional 420 million people would face severe heat waves, and twice as many species would lose most of their climate-suitable habitat. Coral reef losses would rise from 70-90% at 1.5°C to over 99% at 2°C.
Unequal impacts and Escalating Consequences
It is a profound injustice that the nations least responsible for climate change suffer the greatest consequences. Africa, for example, contributes only 2-3% of global greenhouse gas emissions but is the continent most vulnerable to climate impacts. For some small island nations and coastal communities, the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming could determine survival versus extinction.
Even at the current warming level of 1.1 to 1.2°C, no one is immune. A 2024 analysis by World Weather Attribution and Climate Central revealed that climate change added six weeks of dangerously hot days for the average person globally, with regions like the Caribbean and Pacific islands experiencing nearly 150 extra days of extreme heat. Even the least affected regions, such as the UK, US, and Australia, endured three additional weeks of elevated temperatures due to fossil fuel-driven carbon pollution.
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The impacts extend far beyond heat. Unprecedented wildfires, intensified by superhot conditions, have caused devastating loss of life and economic damage while releasing massive amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Hazardous smoke from fires in Canada during the summer of 2023 blanketed cities as far as Georgia, worsening air quality and public health.
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Hurricane Helene, which struck with devastating force in September 2024, serves as a stark reminder that no one is safe from climate impacts. Before the hurricane, the Asheville area was considered a climate haven—a refuge from the worst effects of global warming. The region had even been preparing for an influx of people relocating from other parts of the US and abroad. However, record-warm ocean waters provided extra heat energy, intensifying the storm and transforming it from a system of scattered thunderstorms to a Category 4 hurricane capable of moving farther inland and carrying significantly more water. According to researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, “Our best estimate is that climate change caused over 50% more rainfall during Hurricane Helene in some parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.”
A Race Against Time
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Despite the clear warnings, global leaders are failing to act, leaving us on a path toward surpassing 1.5°C and even 2°C of warming. A survey of IPCC scientists conducted by The Guardian revealed widespread fears that global temperatures will rise by at least 2.5°C (4.5°F) above pre industrial levels this century. Nearly half of the scientists anticipate a rise of 3°C (5.4°F), leading to a “semi-dystopian” future characterized by famines, conflicts, mass migration, and ever-intensifying extreme weather events.
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However, this dire future is not inevitable. Every fraction of a degree of warming will have profound impacts, but if governments act decisively now, there is still a chance to stay close to the 1.5°C threshold. Climate scientists, despite their frustration and despair, continue to sound the alarm and call for immediate action. They urge citizens worldwide to demand bold climate policies and vote for leaders committed to cutting emissions.
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At this critical juncture, public pressure and collective action remain our best hope. The time to act is now—before it’s too late.
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Sources for the above:
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2024-10-01-climate-change-rainfall-flooding-helene